Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 12.940482 15.761015 18.897441 22.622347 26.903236 31.646736 37.277109
2026-01-25 8.630522 12.160194 16.524318 22.223761 29.370458 37.932436 48.853160
2026-02-01 6.469032 10.254243 15.340756 22.473781 31.995911 44.036492 60.151166
2026-02-08 4.852142 8.584306 13.993832 22.067261 33.430917 48.452105 69.347194
2026-02-15 3.651703 7.192291 12.707852 21.425044 34.289415 51.965234 77.377597
2026-02-22 3.034899 6.558305 12.391699 22.054234 36.862854 57.835463 88.762641
2026-03-01 2.385738 5.701039 11.555958 21.734821 37.940154 61.588701 97.335966
2026-03-08 1.935357 5.091685 11.012387 21.768139 39.481497 66.016487 106.992583
2026-03-15 1.461687 4.300040 10.000846 20.871030 39.438451 68.036310 113.196844
2026-03-22 1.252569 4.023181 9.887632 21.482395 41.825094 73.792902 125.088915
2026-03-29 1.049976 3.701760 9.628634 21.785534 43.692230 78.806128 136.037322
2026-04-05 0.889408 3.436704 9.436059 22.174694 45.704943 84.110896 147.601122
2026-04-12 0.754424 3.215332 9.337018 22.803169 48.304658 90.685505 161.733592
2026-04-19 0.579124 2.806966 8.749357 22.409134 49.077613 94.374065 171.592155
2026-04-26 0.471743 2.565814 8.500626 22.661303 51.018060 100.052771 184.792142
2026-05-03 0.358295 2.241794 7.974798 22.252142 51.672726 103.573520 194.629287
2026-05-10 0.262369 1.922272 7.381600 21.605678 51.798758 106.161948 203.007606
2026-05-17 0.221801 1.818709 7.358839 22.239033 54.451485 113.232610 218.995527
2026-05-24 0.166475 1.600422 6.951103 21.917509 55.164518 116.900934 229.419648
2026-05-31 0.129697 1.448725 6.706592 21.951047 56.586677 121.876297 242.189095
2026-06-07 0.087489 1.212230 6.120080 21.047975 55.980875 123.128586 248.633167
2026-06-14 0.073097 1.154223 6.125784 21.663409 58.627274 130.449353 265.740247
2026-06-21 0.058020 1.071101 6.019894 21.968556 60.616155 136.614589 281.009730